Part 5 · Judgement and nuance · Lesson 45

Guessing, appearances and hearsay

でしょう, かもしれない, はず, そう, よう, らしい and みたい: eight ways to say how sure you are and how you know. Includes the difference between 'looks like', 'seems like' and 'I heard'.

About 6 minutes to read

Japanese speakers constantly mark how they know something and how confident they are. There are many patterns, but they sort into a few groups.

How sure am I?

From most to least sure:

Pattern	Feeling	Example
〜に違いない	I'm sure	彼は来るに違いない。
〜はずだ	should be, expected	彼は来るはずだ。
〜だろう / でしょう	probably	彼は来るだろう。
〜かもしれない	might	彼は来るかもしれない。

彼かれheは来くるcomeに違ちがいないsurely

He must be coming.

彼かれheは来くるcomeはずだshould

He should be coming. (as far as I know)

明日あしたtomorrowは雨あめrainだろうprobably

It'll probably rain tomorrow.

彼かれheは来くるcomeかもしれないmight

He might come.

だろう / でしょう

だろう (plain) and でしょう (polite) are "probably". With rising tone, でしょう? becomes "right?":

明日あしたtomorrowは雨あめrainでしょうprobably

It will probably rain tomorrow.

美味おいしいdeliciousでしょうright

Delicious, isn't it?

かもしれない

Short for かもしれません (polite) / かも (casual). Take the plain form.

間まに合あわないwon't make itかもmaybe

I might not make it.

はず

Plain form + はず is "should be, expected to be", based on knowledge or logic. Its negative is はずがない ("there's no way").

あの人ひとpersonが知しらないdoesn't knowはずがないno way

There's no way he doesn't know.

How do I know?

そう: it looks like (appearance)

Stem + そう says something looks like it's going to happen, from what you can see.

このケーキはおいしdeliciousそうlooks

This cake looks delicious.

今いまにもat any moment雨あめrainが降ふりfallそうlooks like

It looks like it's about to rain.

Note: the stem of the い-adjective loses い (おいし + そう); the stem of a verb is the polite stem (降り + そう). The exceptions: よさそう (looks good) and なさそう (doesn't look like there is).

そうだ: I heard (hearsay)

Plain form + そうだ reports what you heard.

明日あしたtomorrowは雨あめrainだそうだI heard

I hear it'll rain tomorrow.

Compare: 雨が降りそうだ (it looks like rain) vs 雨が降るそうだ (I heard it will rain). The difference is just the form before そうだ: stem for appearance, plain for hearsay.

ようだ / みたい: it seems

Plain form + ようだ (formal) or みたい (casual) says something seems to be so, based on the speaker's own senses or reasoning.

外そとoutsideは寒さむいcoldようだseems

It seems to be cold outside.

彼かれheは疲つかれているis tiredみたいseems

He seems tired.

With nouns, ようだ/みたい also make comparisons: 夢のようだ ("it's like a dream"), 子供みたい ("like a child").

らしい: apparently, hearsay-based

Plain form + らしい means "apparently" based on what you've heard, or "typical of":

彼かれheは結婚けっこんするmarryらしいapparently

Apparently he's getting married.

男おとこmanらしいlike a man人ひとperson

a manly person

Which one?

Pattern	Source of information
〜そう (stem)	what I can see, a first impression
〜そうだ (plain)	what someone told me
〜ようだ / みたい	my own reasoning from evidence
〜らしい	what I've heard, secondhand

They overlap; careful speakers choose carefully, but beginners often use them interchangeably without issue.

Longer sentences

News and conversation stack hearsay and inference. Look for who is asserting what.

天気予報てんきよほうによるとaccording to the forecast明日あしたはtomorrow全国的ぜんこくてきにnationwide雨あめがrain降ふるそうだI hear it will fall空そらもthe sky too今いまにもat any moment降ふり出だしそうだしlooks about to start falling and風かぜもwind too強つよくなってきたようだからseems to have grown strong, so明日あしたのtomorrow's遠足えんそくはexcursion中止ちゅうしにcancelledなるかもしれないmight become

According to the forecast it's going to rain across the country tomorrow. The sky looks like it could open at any moment, and the wind seems to have picked up, so tomorrow's excursion might be cancelled.

彼かれはhe今日きょうもtoday too来こないらしいapparently isn't coming先週せんしゅうからsince last week体調たいちょうがcondition悪わるいはずだしshould be bad and無理むりしてforcing himself来くるcome必要ひつようもneed eitherないに違ちがいないsurely there isn't

Apparently he isn't coming in today. He should still be unwell since last week, and surely there is no need for him to force himself to come.

A conversation of inferences

田中たなかさんTanaka、まだstill来きてないねhasn't come, has he

電車でんしゃがtrains遅おくれているらしいよapparently delayedさっきa while agoニュースでon the news事故じこがan accidentあったそうだI heard there was

じゃあthen会議かいぎにはfor the meeting間まに合あわないwon't make itかもしれないねmight not

でもbut彼かれのことだからit being himタクシーでby taxi来くるに違ちがいないよsurely will come

そうだといいけどI hope so

Tanaka still hasn't come, has he? The trains are apparently delayed. I heard on the news a while ago that there was an accident. Then he might not make the meeting. But knowing him, he must be coming by taxi. I hope so.

Key points

Confidence: に違いない > はず > だろう > かもしれない.
Stem + そう = looks like. Plain + そうだ = I heard.
ようだ / みたい = it seems. らしい = apparently.
はずがない = no way.

Drill these patterns

Short example sentences for the points in this lesson: